ACC>SEC in '17. Why? Coaches & QB's

Jacket4Life9

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
210
Warning: long post, just a thought. Not well written

Someone asked me the other day... "I know the SEC is down, particularly the East, but why? The talent has been fairly constant." After the conclusion of the '17 season, I considered many factors and narrowed it down to two: Coaching changes and general lack of QB talent.

Looking at the SEC holistically, the conference's coaching and QB talent appears to have dipped dramatically. Despite the conference's ability to dominate recruiting each and every year and bring in top defensive lineman, LB's, DB's, most SEC teams have not been able to "hit" on a QB recruit to take their teams to the next level. The frequency of coaching change within the conference is also seeming to affect many teams' success. Gone are the days of Urban Meyer, Les Miles, Bobby Petrino, James Franklin, Mark Richt, and Steve Spurrier coaching their programs to consistent success. Replacing those coaches, respectively, are Jim McElwain (huge downgrade), Ed Orgeron (we'll see), Bret Beliema (downgrade), Derek Mason (okay, but not in same ballpark as Franklin), Kirby Smart (we'll see), and Will Muschamp (downgrade IMO). Also long gone are the days of Heisman QBs such as Johnny Manziel, Cam Newton, Tim Tebow, and other high quality QBs such as Dak Prescott, Zach Mettenberger, and Aaron Murray. This year, Chad Kelley and Jalen Hurts were arguably the best QB's in the conference. In recent years, we've seen teams like Florida, Georgia, and Texas A&M start kids at QB who were previously beaten out at their prior school. Granted, Trevor Knight was better than 75% of SEC QBs, but the fact that Virginia cast-off Greyson Lambert and the ex-Purdue Austin Applebee and journeyman-former-walk-on Luke Del Rio had the opportunity to play for UGA and UF respectively is indicative of the overarching problem within the conference. On top of that, after Nick Saban, there does not appear to yet be a top tier coach in the conference. I'm not saying many of the relatively inexperienced coaches in the conference won't improve (i.e. Kirby Smart), but at the moment coaching appears to be one of the conference's issues.

On the flip side, we have the ACC. Speaking of the conference in a general manner, the QB play was outstanding in 2016. Deshaun Watson, the nation's best QB, played for conference and national champion Clemson. The Heisman Trophy winner, Lamar Jackson, played very well in the same division as Watson. DeAndre Francois appears to be a rising star with a bound of potential at FSU. On the Coastal side, Mitch Trubisky projects to be a first round pick in this years' draft. What's more impressive about his accomplishments is the fact that '16 was his first year starting, in which he replaced an outstanding QB in Marquis Williams. Our very own Justin Thomas was an outstanding field general and QB. Unfortunately, he played in the shadow of the rest of the conferences QB's in more pass-happy systems. Miami's Brad Kayaa never impressed me very much, but to be fair, I watched very few of his games. He is projected to be a 2-3 round pick in the upcoming draft. Pitt's QB, Nathan Peterman, was very solid as well. He is also projected to be drafted in 2017. Jerod Evans, yet another quarterback, though he-much like some of the aforementioned SEC QBs, transferred into VT and only played one season, had a strong year in 2016. I don't recall a year in which the QB talent was better in the ACC.
As far as coaching, the ACC has seen much more stability in my opinion. This is not by accident. Clemson's Dabo Swinney and FSU's Jimbo Fisher have been outstanding, each winning a National Title in the last 5 years. Several of the conference's other teams such as GT, UNC, and Duke, have extremely good coaches in CPJ, Fedora, and Cutcliffe, respectively. Richt is a proven head coach at Miami. Although I hate to admit it, he had a phenomenal career at UGA. He underachieved in his latter years, but he is a great coach nonetheless. Beamer is gone, and Fuente is in. I believe VT has a good one. I am certain that I have left out a few coaches and assistant coaches that have made a difference for their respective teams. I am only trying to analyze a general phenomenon that has reshaped the perception of two of the nation's top conferences, at least for now.

The main point is: many people forget/underestimate how important QB's and Coaching are. Not a coincidence New England has achieved the success that they have with Belichick and Brady. On the NCAA level, you had Dabo and Watson. In each case, the championship winning team contained a strong overall team and I'm sure assistant coaches... but it is clear that an elite Head Man and QB are a recipe for success. This year, IMO, the ACC led the SEC in both categories, thus the result was 10-4 and a National Championship.
 

Skeptic

Helluva Engineer
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6,372
I would argue that it was coaching turnover, not stability, that launched the ACC. Miami,Va., VT, Pitt, Louisville, Wake, NC State, UNC, and somewhere I am missing one or more, all flipped in the last five years, the exodus perhaps beginning with Bowden in '11 or '12. (A great football mind and speaker, a master at removing himself at least one step from shady recruitering, but who hung around a couple of years too long.) Conversely the SEC, and the thought is not original as I read similar somewhere, figured if Saban the Elder was great then Sabans I, II, III or IV, those who had served on his staff, would be die cast in his image. Mistakes were made. The ACC went out and got fresh blood and while I didn't research it any it seems Swinney and Johnson are the seniors of the league's coaching ranks, and about 10 years. I'd agree on the QBs, though.
 

Jacket4Life9

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
210
I would argue that it was coaching turnover, not stability, that launched the ACC. Miami,Va., VT, Pitt, Louisville, Wake, NC State, UNC, and somewhere I am missing one or more, all flipped in the last five years, the exodus perhaps beginning with Bowden in '11 or '12. (A great football mind and speaker, a master at removing himself at least one step from shady recruitering, but who hung around a couple of years too long.) Conversely the SEC, and the thought is not original as I read similar somewhere, figured if Saban the Elder was great then Sabans I, II, III or IV, those who had served on his staff, would be die cast in his image. Mistakes were made. The ACC went out and got fresh blood and while I didn't research it any it seems Swinney and Johnson are the seniors of the league's coaching ranks, and about 10 years. I'd agree on the QBs, though.

Good point
 

nod

Ramblin' Wreck
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706
ACC Coastal to me is best sub conf in football. Does not containn that powerhouse dominate team, but 5 very good teams that could win every week, GT, VT, Miami, UNC, Pitt, add Duke in the mix the past few years
 
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And As I have stated, I believe the ACC will not be as good this year. Most of the league not only lost their quarterbacks but many running backs and wide receivers. Clemson, Miami, VT, UNC, Pitt all fall into this category. Yes we have to replace JT5 but we return the rest of our offense. Our offense is not as dependent on the QB as others.
 

MikeJackets

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And As I have stated, I believe the ACC will not be as good this year. Most of the league not only lost their quarterbacks but many running backs and wide receivers. Clemson, Miami, VT, UNC, Pitt all fall into this category. Yes we have to replace JT5 but we return the rest of our offense. Our offense is not as dependent on the QB as others.
That is one of the reasons I think GT goes to the ACC Championship Game.(y)
 

Boomergump

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Featured Member
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And As I have stated, I believe the ACC will not be as good this year. Most of the league not only lost their quarterbacks but many running backs and wide receivers. Clemson, Miami, VT, UNC, Pitt all fall into this category. Yes we have to replace JT5 but we return the rest of our offense. Our offense is not as dependent on the QB as others.
It is an interesting comment, "our offense is not as dependent on the QB as others". Honestly, I don't know if I agree or disagree. For sure it is dependent in a different way, but how much so is hard to quantify. I'm going to have to think about that one.
 

1979jacket

Ramblin' Wreck
Messages
568
I think the post is very accurate and I've felt it is mostly coaching but have to agree the QB difference makes sense as well.
Let's rank top coaches however now and in the past. The difference is astonishing.
ACC Now
Top coaches -7
1 Jimbo Fisher - great offensive mind and passing game
2 Dabbo Swinney - fantastic recruiter and has grown into a coach
3 Paul Johnson - unique offense and great running game
4 Bobby Petrino - yeah no one like(s) him but he can score some points
5 Pitt coach - good coach with BigTen big time program likely in his future
6 Cutliffe - he has done some amazing things at Duke
7 Richt - solid coach

Next level- 3
8 Fuentes - appears to have a bright future
9 Fedora - not as high on him as others but has had some success
10 Mendenhall - had success at BYU

Wake, NC State, BC, Syracuse - decent coaches but not top level-4

SEC Now
Top level
1 Saban - unbelievably good

Next level
1 Malzahn - if has good/great players, can be top level
2 Mullen
3 Florida coach - may be a top level coach

Unproven - may be good but now now
1 Smart
2 Sumlin
3 Freeze - good recruiter but ...... results may vary
4 Muschamp
5 Vandy coach
6 Arkansas coach
7 Missouri coach
8 Jones - Tennessee - doesn't appear very good
9 Stoops - deserves to be coaching Division III football
10 Oregron - no proven success

The tide has turned from 3 years ago

Top, next level coaches
ACC Past - 4
1 Swinney - he is better now than he was and this may be generous
2 P Johnson
3 Fisher
4 Cutliffe
Fedora was still learning and Strong was not good
SEC Past -10
1 Saban
2 LSU knucklehead
3 Petrino
4 Malzahn
5 Mullen
6 Richt
7 Spurrrier
8 Franklin
9 Meyer
10 Missouri coach who retired

The level of coaching has seriously changed in both leagues which is why I believe the ACC will do well over the next few years. The carousel can shift however.
 

CornerBlitz

Jolly Good Fellow
Messages
160
Warning: long post, just a thought. Not well written

Someone asked me the other day... "I know the SEC is down, particularly the East, but why? The talent has been fairly constant." After the conclusion of the '17 season, I considered many factors and narrowed it down to two: Coaching changes and general lack of QB talent.

Looking at the SEC holistically, the conference's coaching and QB talent appears to have dipped dramatically. Despite the conference's ability to dominate recruiting each and every year and bring in top defensive lineman, LB's, DB's, most SEC teams have not been able to "hit" on a QB recruit to take their teams to the next level. The frequency of coaching change within the conference is also seeming to affect many teams' success. Gone are the days of Urban Meyer, Les Miles, Bobby Petrino, James Franklin, Mark Richt, and Steve Spurrier coaching their programs to consistent success. Replacing those coaches, respectively, are Jim McElwain (huge downgrade), Ed Orgeron (we'll see), Bret Beliema (downgrade), Derek Mason (okay, but not in same ballpark as Franklin), Kirby Smart (we'll see), and Will Muschamp (downgrade IMO). Also long gone are the days of Heisman QBs such as Johnny Manziel, Cam Newton, Tim Tebow, and other high quality QBs such as Dak Prescott, Zach Mettenberger, and Aaron Murray. This year, Chad Kelley and Jalen Hurts were arguably the best QB's in the conference. In recent years, we've seen teams like Florida, Georgia, and Texas A&M start kids at QB who were previously beaten out at their prior school. Granted, Trevor Knight was better than 75% of SEC QBs, but the fact that Virginia cast-off Greyson Lambert and the ex-Purdue Austin Applebee and journeyman-former-walk-on Luke Del Rio had the opportunity to play for UGA and UF respectively is indicative of the overarching problem within the conference. On top of that, after Nick Saban, there does not appear to yet be a top tier coach in the conference. I'm not saying many of the relatively inexperienced coaches in the conference won't improve (i.e. Kirby Smart), but at the moment coaching appears to be one of the conference's issues.

On the flip side, we have the ACC. Speaking of the conference in a general manner, the QB play was outstanding in 2016. Deshaun Watson, the nation's best QB, played for conference and national champion Clemson. The Heisman Trophy winner, Lamar Jackson, played very well in the same division as Watson. DeAndre Francois appears to be a rising star with a bound of potential at FSU. On the Coastal side, Mitch Trubisky projects to be a first round pick in this years' draft. What's more impressive about his accomplishments is the fact that '16 was his first year starting, in which he replaced an outstanding QB in Marquis Williams. Our very own Justin Thomas was an outstanding field general and QB. Unfortunately, he played in the shadow of the rest of the conferences QB's in more pass-happy systems. Miami's Brad Kayaa never impressed me very much, but to be fair, I watched very few of his games. He is projected to be a 2-3 round pick in the upcoming draft. Pitt's QB, Nathan Peterman, was very solid as well. He is also projected to be drafted in 2017. Jerod Evans, yet another quarterback, though he-much like some of the aforementioned SEC QBs, transferred into VT and only played one season, had a strong year in 2016. I don't recall a year in which the QB talent was better in the ACC.
As far as coaching, the ACC has seen much more stability in my opinion. This is not by accident. Clemson's Dabo Swinney and FSU's Jimbo Fisher have been outstanding, each winning a National Title in the last 5 years. Several of the conference's other teams such as GT, UNC, and Duke, have extremely good coaches in CPJ, Fedora, and Cutcliffe, respectively. Richt is a proven head coach at Miami. Although I hate to admit it, he had a phenomenal career at UGA. He underachieved in his latter years, but he is a great coach nonetheless. Beamer is gone, and Fuente is in. I believe VT has a good one. I am certain that I have left out a few coaches and assistant coaches that have made a difference for their respective teams. I am only trying to analyze a general phenomenon that has reshaped the perception of two of the nation's top conferences, at least for now.

The main point is: many people forget/underestimate how important QB's and Coaching are. Not a coincidence New England has achieved the success that they have with Belichick and Brady. On the NCAA level, you had Dabo and Watson. In each case, the championship winning team contained a strong overall team and I'm sure assistant coaches... but it is clear that an elite Head Man and QB are a recipe for success. This year, IMO, the ACC led the SEC in both categories, thus the result was 10-4 and a National Championship.

Good post and I also agree with you. No conference is perfect, but also hope the ACC's focus to off-field success will pay long-term dividends.
 

Skeptic

Helluva Engineer
Messages
6,372
I think the post is very accurate and I've felt it is mostly coaching but have to agree the QB difference makes sense as well.
Let's rank top coaches however now and in the past. The difference is astonishing.
ACC Now
Top coaches -7
1 Jimbo Fisher - great offensive mind and passing game
2 Dabbo Swinney - fantastic recruiter and has grown into a coach
3 Paul Johnson - unique offense and great running game
4 Bobby Petrino - yeah no one like(s) him but he can score some points
5 Pitt coach - good coach with BigTen big time program likely in his future
6 Cutliffe - he has done some amazing things at Duke
7 Richt - solid coach

Next level- 3
8 Fuentes - appears to have a bright future
9 Fedora - not as high on him as others but has had some success
10 Mendenhall - had success at BYU

Wake, NC State, BC, Syracuse - decent coaches but not top level-4

SEC Now
Top level
1 Saban - unbelievably good

Next level
1 Malzahn - if has good/great players, can be top level
2 Mullen
3 Florida coach - may be a top level coach

Unproven - may be good but now now
1 Smart
2 Sumlin
3 Freeze - good recruiter but ...... results may vary
4 Muschamp
5 Vandy coach
6 Arkansas coach
7 Missouri coach
8 Jones - Tennessee - doesn't appear very good
9 Stoops - deserves to be coaching Division III football
10 Oregron - no proven success

The tide has turned from 3 years ago

Top, next level coaches
ACC Past - 4
1 Swinney - he is better now than he was and this may be generous
2 P Johnson
3 Fisher
4 Cutliffe
Fedora was still learning and Strong was not good
SEC Past -10
1 Saban
2 LSU knucklehead
3 Petrino
4 Malzahn
5 Mullen
6 Richt
7 Spurrrier
8 Franklin
9 Meyer
10 Missouri coach who retired

The level of coaching has seriously changed in both leagues which is why I believe the ACC will do well over the next few years. The carousel can shift however.
That's a good list and a lot of work. Thanks for posting it. I might think Richt should be higher (and I am afraid we might find out at Miami) and Mendenhall and Fuentes will be. I just don't get Fedora at UNC because even with all the scandal that is a recruiting dream in Chapel Hill. And while he irks me I agree Cutcliff has worked wonders at Duke. (Football at UNC and Duke used to be known as "13 Saturdays until basketball.) If Swinney continues widening his recruiting net through the Midwest he is going to be the coach everybody talks about before he is done. (I like it because he drives Meyer and the narcissist from Michigan crazy.) Moreover that program has insane support, literally, and apparently unlimited money. I am really intrigued by what the new AD might bring to the football program at Tech. So far it looks good.
 
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