3 Georgia Tech athletes have tested positive for COVID-19.

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GTNavyNuke said:
No, it's mostly the lag in death certificates coming in. This is the raw number of death certificates filed. Column 4 shows the deaths certificates recorded in the 7/3 to 7/9 period for the different weeks ending. For example, 38 more death certificates were filed for the week ending 2/1/2020 (!) during the period of 7/3 to 7/10. This is raw CDC data in columns 1-4 and the rest is manipulated as shown.

The improvement in estimated excess deaths is probably better treatments and the average age of cases being 15 years younger and maybe the new strain (European) being less virulent. Unfortunately, too many independent variables for me to know.

View attachment 8546

And yes the number of extrapolated excess deaths is falling off through the week ending 7/4/2020. We'll see how long that continues with cases and hospital intakes up.
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Good info as usual. Also I'd like to point out that the concerns of covid are not simple and binary as surviving vs not. There's also the long term health concerns that may be an issue. Let's not even get into some of the medical bills people are racking up after treatment. You survive covid, only to be in debt for the rest of your life (for those that reach a critical point and need icu and other hospitalization).
 
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GTNavyNuke said:
No, it's mostly the lag in death certificates coming in. This is the raw number of death certificates filed. Column 4 shows the deaths certificates recorded in the 7/3 to 7/9 period for the different weeks ending. For example, 38 more death certificates were filed for the week ending 2/1/2020 (!) during the period of 7/3 to 7/10. This is raw CDC data in columns 1-4 and the rest is manipulated as shown.

The improvement in estimated excess deaths is probably better treatments and the average age of cases being 15 years younger and maybe the new strain (European) being less virulent. Unfortunately, too many independent variables for me to know.

View attachment 8546

And yes the number of extrapolated excess deaths is falling off through the week ending 7/4/2020. We'll see how long that continues with cases and hospital intakes up.
Click to expand...
I saw an interview with a doctor at a Houston hospital. His experience has been that younger people are showing up at his hospital with COVID-19 and being admitted in surprisingly high numbers. But, the % of admissions that go ICU is not increasing at the same rate. His opinion is that young patients get really sick, but not as sick as older patients. When you think about it, that is the case with most illnesses. Some % of those ICU patients will die of COVID, but they represent a smaller proportion of hospitalizations.

My take on this as a football fan, when I reject my bias toward having football, is that Tech will have students who get the virus. They will socialize with enough people and their risk for infection is really high relative people who stay away from social situations. Since members of the football team are students, they will be members of that same cohort group. We will have players who get infected. How sick they are and how many others are infected from playing and practicing and sharing classrooms with them is the unknown.

What is also an unknown is how much risk tolerance the various officials have. Some of the tolerance is based on how negative is the publicity when the numbers start increasing (as they will). That will be weighed against the other competing priorities. And, how big the numbers get (see Clemson).

Remember, football players will be coming into contact with a lot of people who are not fellow students. Local experience here in NC is that a person can be asymptomatic for two to 14 days while infecting other people.
 
LibertyTurns

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GTRanj2 said:
Illogical is assuming you know the facts, when nothing has been confirmed. No one knows yet how what the long term effects of covid are. There are many more unknowns as well. Look in the mirror next time you call sometime illogical. I'm glad most in charge are more logical then most in here. If it were up to some of y'all, the season would go on with no changes and full stadiums. Too bad you can't make that decision and so you must deal with logical people's decisions on safety :).
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Illogical is staring at a chart with thousands of data points and reaching a conclusion completely the opposite of what the data is telling you. Good luck de-risking every action everyone could ever take.

If we play football in the fall and the stadium is packed, I’d say 55k people reached a different conclusion. I’m really not sure why some people are so fixated with controlling the lives of others. This is a free country. Put the information out there & let the people decide.
 
GTNavyNuke

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GTRanj2 said:
Good info as usual. Also I'd like to point out that the concerns of covid are not simple and binary as surviving vs not. There's also the long term health concerns that may be an issue. Let's not even get into some of the medical bills people are racking up after treatment. You survive covid, only to be in debt for the rest of your life (for those that reach a critical point and need icu and other hospitalization).
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Agree entirely. I follow excess deaths because it is binary.

There is so much BS thrown out by people. This area of causes of death was a real backwater. Late reporting of deaths doesn't help. Not having testing early on confused things by COVID not being the cause of death. So I look at excess deaths in conjunction with a lot of other stuff.

Bottom line, I personally know 3 people who got really really sick from this virus. Not something I want. And there is permanent damage from any severe pneumonia which weakens the system for the next infection.

Finally, I believe Hanlon's Razor provides the reason why most of these yahoos won't wear a mask. Nothing for me to do except stay away from them as much as possible.
 

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GTNavyNuke said:
Agree entirely. I follow excess deaths because it is binary.

There is so much BS thrown out by people. This area of causes of death was a real backwater. Late reporting of deaths doesn't help. Not having testing early on confused things by COVID not being the cause of death. So I look at excess deaths in conjunction with a lot of other stuff.

Bottom line, I personally know 3 people who got really really sick from this virus. Not something I want. And there is permanent damage from any severe pneumonia which weakens the system for the next infection.

Finally, I believe Hanlon's Razor provides the reason why most of these yahoos won't wear a mask. Nothing for me to do except stay away from them as much as possible.
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Yep. And you know me as I’ve pointed it out before - even with what I consider aggressive death counting here, there is still a massive number of “unaccounted for deaths” over and above the usual average. Car accidents and school shootings and other communicable disease deaths are all down too. So what is it? I don’t really want to know the answer!
 
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LibertyTurns said:
Illogical is staring at a chart with thousands of data points and reaching a conclusion completely the opposite of what the data is telling you. Good luck de-risking every action everyone could ever take.

If we play football in the fall and the stadium is packed, I’d say 55k people reached a different conclusion. I’m really not sure why some people are so fixated with controlling the lives of others. This is a free country. Put the information out there & let the people decide.
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I'm just happy you don't get to make that decision. It's someone's right to run their stadium how they will as well, and if they choose to only allow people with masks, so be it, if they only allow a percentage of capacity tickets to be sold, so be it. The point is, I'm glad you're not making that decision. Stop turing every single debate about your freedom. What if I want to go to work, but there's a bunch of yahoos who don't want to wear a mask because it fringes upon their freedom. We have to work in there (there being a confined space due to the nature of the work I'm doing) for a whole work day, and I get sick because of their lack of caution. Now I can't go into work because of them, or rack up medical bills because of them. What if I decide that's too big of a risk and their actions prevent me from being able to work. Aren't they taking my freedom away? See freedom isn't just your freedom to have. It's not so simple.
 
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Jerry the Jacket

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Odds are they do not have any symptoms and probably would not know they had it if not tested. For sure they are not in the hospital, in ICU on a Ventilator or near death. Only 1 in 100,000 are experiencing those outcomes.

Go Jackets!
 

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scotts said:
Sorry to take this discussion in another direction but how are the 3 athletes doing?
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We won’t know likely until later. But so far about half of student athletes are asymptomatic. I haven’t read about a single student athlete in the country going to a hospital. At the level of fitness and health these people have, the answer is they’re probably bored in quarantine and that’s about it.
 

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I think I’m just bitter that people I know seem to have decided that that mask wearing is a bridge too far when it comes to their freedom.

The consequences of head injuries and not wearing seatbelts include the financial risk to society of those poor judgement. AFAIK, Florida still does not mandate helmets.

Agreed that drunk driving is likely a better direct comparison. Maybe the argument should be that not wearing a mask harms the economy because I’m not entering your business if you don’t require patrons to mask up? Reducing the risk of death to yourself and others isn’t a compelling argument for some.
 
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Jerry the Jacket said:
Sounds like we just need to put a mask on the players, coaches, cheerleaders, band and the fans. Let's do it and get on with the season.

Go Jackets!
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problem solved for players.

s-l300.jpg
 

RamblinRed

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bwelbo said:
Yep. And you know me as I’ve pointed it out before - even with what I consider aggressive death counting here, there is still a massive number of “unaccounted for deaths” over and above the usual average. Car accidents and school shootings and other communicable disease deaths are all down too. So what is it? I don’t really want to know the answer!
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The only country in the world that has probably been super aggressive in reporting is Belgium which is why they are #1 in the world for per capita deaths.
What is causing the excess deaths is fairly obvious, some just don't want to accept what is right in fron of us.

There are multiple cases in the US of homes hiding deaths or saying they were due to someting else (like in Athens where a sr health care facility was purposely returning negative tests - by sending the tests to a lab and telling them it was one type of test rather than what it was so that it would automatically come back as a negative). Nursing homes in the US have a strong incentive not to report COVID illnesses or deaths and the government has not been aggressive at all in making them do so.
 
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