2024 Season

[gtbeak]

About to call it a night. Thought I'd check on my list.

Root for (or against):
East Carolina in AAC tournament <-- East Carolina won their opener
Indiana St in Missouri Valley tournament <-- Starts tomorrow
San Diego over Portland in West Coast tournament <-- Starts Thursday
Lamar in Southland tournament <-- Starts tomorrow
UConn over Xavier in Big East tournament <-- Starts tomorrow
Northeastern over Charleston or UNC-Wilmington in Coastal Athletic <-- Starts tomorrow
Nebraska and Illinois over Indiana and Ohio St in Big Ten <-- Nebraska is losing big to Ohio St in the 5th, Indiana won, Illinois starts tomorrow
Dallas Baptist or Louisiana Tech in Conference USA <-- Starts tomorrow
Southern Miss and Louisiana over Coastal Carolina, James Madison, or Troy in Sun Belt <-- Coastal won, others start tomorrow
Oregon St, Arizona, and Oregon over Cal in PAC12 <-- Cal plays late tonight, others start tomorrow
Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, West Virginia and Kansas over TCU and Kansas St in Big 12 <-- Kansas beat Kansas St, TCU beat West Virginia
Mississippi St over Ole Miss in SEC 1st round <-- Ole Miss leads 1-0 in the 8th
UGA (yuk) over LSU in SEC 1st round <-- LSU beat UGa
Root strongly against Louisville in ACC pods. <-- Miami beat Louisville

By my count there are currently 14 bubble spots available and 23 teams in the running for those 14 spots. That number (14) will drop with each "stolen bid" from a team pulling an upset and winning their tourney. My ranking of the 22 bubble teams goes like this: Green = Looking Good, Purple = In, but sweating it, Orange = First teams out, probably need another win, Red = Not looking good, but still a small chance

• South Carolina (19 RPI)
• Vanderbilt (22)
• Alabama (18)
• LSU (27)
• Coastal Carolina (33)
• TCU (37)
• Central Florida (39)
• James Madison (43)
• UNC-Wilmington (48)
• Georgia Tech (50)
• Kansas St (44) <-- Root for West Virginia over K-State tomorrow
• Charleston (49)
• Florida (29)
• Troy (53)
• East Tennessee St (51)
• California (65)
• Xavier (40)
• Indiana (54)
• Louisville (58)
• Cincinnati (57)
• Ohio St (63)
• Wofford (56)
• Portland (62)

 

[GTNavyNuke]

About to call it a night. Thought I'd check on my list.

Root for (or against):
East Carolina in AAC tournament <-- East Carolina won their opener
Indiana St in Missouri Valley tournament <-- Starts tomorrow
San Diego over Portland in West Coast tournament <-- Starts Thursday
Lamar in Southland tournament <-- Starts tomorrow
UConn over Xavier in Big East tournament <-- Starts tomorrow
Northeastern over Charleston or UNC-Wilmington in Coastal Athletic <-- Starts tomorrow
Nebraska and Illinois over Indiana and Ohio St in Big Ten <-- Nebraska is losing big to Ohio St in the 5th, Indiana won, Illinois starts tomorrow
Dallas Baptist or Louisiana Tech in Conference USA <-- Starts tomorrow
Southern Miss and Louisiana over Coastal Carolina, James Madison, or Troy in Sun Belt <-- Coastal won, others start tomorrow
Oregon St, Arizona, and Oregon over Cal in PAC12 <-- Cal plays late tonight, others start tomorrow
Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, West Virginia and Kansas over TCU and Kansas St in Big 12 <-- Kansas beat Kansas St, TCU beat West Virginia
Mississippi St over Ole Miss in SEC 1st round <-- Ole Miss leads 1-0 in the 8th
UGA (yuk) over LSU in SEC 1st round <-- LSU beat UGa
Root strongly against Louisville in ACC pods. <-- Miami beat Louisville

By my count there are currently 14 bubble spots available and 23 teams in the running for those 14 spots. That number (14) will drop with each "stolen bid" from a team pulling an upset and winning their tourney. My ranking of the 22 bubble teams goes like this: Green = Looking Good, Purple = In, but sweating it, Orange = First teams out, probably need another win, Red = Not looking good, but still a small chance

• South Carolina (19 RPI)
• Vanderbilt (22)
• Alabama (18)
• LSU (27)
• Coastal Carolina (33)
• TCU (37)
• Central Florida (39)
• James Madison (43)
• UNC-Wilmington (48)
• Georgia Tech (50)
• Kansas St (44) <-- Root for West Virginia over K-State tomorrow
• Charleston (49)
• Florida (29)
• Troy (53)
• East Tennessee St (51)
• California (65)
• Xavier (40)
• Indiana (54)
• Louisville (58)
• Cincinnati (57)
• Ohio St (63)
• Wofford (56)
• Portland (62)

Love it. Thanks.

Just win today against UVa. I'd rather not test the theory that a 15-17 ACC team which went 3-7 in the last 10 makes the NCAAT. 16-16 is so much prettier.

 

[awbuzz]

You rock! @gtbeak

 

[gtbeak]

Mississippi St scored 2 in the bottom of the 9th to beat Ole Miss 2-1 and end the Rebels season. They have an RPI in the 30's, but with a losing record overall are ineligible for consideration.

Cal run ruled Washington in the PAC-12 tournament.

 

[senoiajacket]

Love it. Thanks.

Just win today against UVa. I'd rather not test the theory that a 15-17 ACC team which went 3-7 in the last 10 makes the NCAAT. 16-16 is so much prettier.

What’s the chances that “the committee” looks at a Tech victory over UVA today and decides “well, they beat a team that really didn’t have any reason to win” to get to .500 overall in the conference. He we are gonna stoke conspiracy theories about why who got in and who didn’t, might this be a good one for a team that is on the “bubbliest of bubbles” as I heard one announcer say?

 

[FredJacket]

Mississippi St scored 2 in the bottom of the 9th to beat Ole Miss 2-1 and end the Rebels season. They have an RPI in the 30's, but with a losing record overall are ineligible for consideration.

Cal run ruled Washington in the PAC-12 tournament.

This is crazy. D1 has 305 teams in it. RPI math after a full season is played... says one of them (Ole Miss) is a top 35 team (top 12%) with a winning percentage of 0.482. There are close to 160 teams with better winning percentages.

Your Honor.... the prosecution rests.

 

[bensaysitathome]

What’s the chances that “the committee” looks at a Tech victory over UVA today and decides “well, they beat a team that really didn’t have any reason to win” to get to .500 overall in the conference. He we are gonna stoke conspiracy theories about why who got in and who didn’t, might this be a good one for a team that is on the “bubbliest of bubbles” as I heard one announcer say?

I doubt it. If we win that game, the loss is a real blemish on their resume, too.

"Not contributing to one's ability to win the ACC" is not the same as "not a real game on one's NCAA tourney resume."

 

[FredJacket]

What’s the chances that “the committee” looks at a Tech victory over UVA today and decides “well, they beat a team that really didn’t have any reason to win” to get to .500 overall in the conference. He we are gonna stoke conspiracy theories about why who got in and who didn’t, might this be a good one for a team that is on the “bubbliest of bubbles” as I heard one announcer say?

I think the chances are close to zero the committee sees it that way. No way to really how a team is approaching a game. The committee has enough stuff to think through without introducing relative motivation of teams playing.

 

[bensaysitathome]

This is crazy. D1 has 305 teams in it. RPI math after a full season is played... says one of them (Ole Miss) is a top 35 team (top 12%) with a winning percentage of 0.482. There are close to 160 teams with better winning percentages.

Your Honor.... the prosecution rests.

To be fair, it does not suggest Ole Miss is a top 35 team. It says they have a top 35 strength of schedule.

 

[gtbeak]

Might I have been too quick to eliminate Texas Tech? They beat Texas last night in the Big 12 tourney and their RPI jumped to 52. Their 12-17 record in Big 12 regular season and 3-13 in Quad 1 games made me ignore them, but perhaps with another win I'll need to add them to the bubble list.

 

[senoiajacket]

Might I have been too quick to eliminate Texas Tech? They beat Texas last night in the Big 12 tourney and their RPI jumped to 52. Their 12-17 record in Big 12 regular season and 3-13 in Quad 1 games made me ignore them, but perhaps with another win I'll need to add them to the bubble list.

Looking at those metrics, it’s hard to see how they are not done. And they aren’t even in the right conference.

I think the chances are close to zero the committee sees it that way. No way to really how a team is approaching a game. The committee has enough stuff to think through without introducing relative motivation of teams playing.

while I agree that it’s hard to judge motivation, it seems like a lock that UVA will not be throwing any of their top arms today.

 

[gtbeak]

Anyone have a D1 Baseball subscription who would be willing to do a brief review of this article? I would love to read it, but not willing to subscribe for the priviledge.

Etheridge: Here's another way to evaluate the tourney field • D1Baseball

The NCAA switched to the Quad system from RPI tiers this season. Neither are ideal for evaluating postseason teams. Inside, we offer a way to augment the process.

d1baseball.com

 

[57jacket]

I predict this is Danny's last year.

 

[gtbeak]

What’s the chances that “the committee” looks at a Tech victory over UVA today and decides “well, they beat a team that really didn’t have any reason to win” to get to .500 overall in the conference. He we are gonna stoke conspiracy theories about why who got in and who didn’t, might this be a good one for a team that is on the “bubbliest of bubbles” as I heard one announcer say?

Well, it looks like we are getting one of UVa's top arms, maybe even their #1.

 

[Golden Tornadoes]

Well, it looks like we are getting one of UVa's top arms, maybe even their #1.

Yeah, this game has started swimmingly....Fin is done after 1.1, leaving two on and giving way to King.

 

[gtbeak]

Yeah, this game has started swimmingly....Fin is done after 1.1, leaving two on and giving way to King.

Yep, and UVa is throwing their #1 guy at us. Our season is on the ropes.

 

[GTNavyNuke]

This is crazy. D1 has 305 teams in it. RPI math after a full season is played... says one of them (Ole Miss) is a top 35 team (top 12%) with a winning percentage of 0.482. There are close to 160 teams with better winning percentages.

Your Honor.... the prosecution rests.

Wow, that OOC SoS is important is something someone should let our coaching staff know.

Defense rests.

I predict this is Danny's last year.

Everyone who has predicted this is past years has been wrong. But I admire consistency.

Yep, and UVa is throwing their #1 guy at us. Our season is on the ropes.

GT down 0-4 going B2, I'd expect UVa pitcher gets pulled soon but he's out there. Our program is on the ropes, but we are used to that.

 

[MWBATL]

Frankly, with our pitching, we really don't deserve an NCAA invite.

Our hitting is great and our defense has been great but our pitching....<sigh>

 

[FredJacket]

Wow, that OOC SoS is important is something someone should let our coaching staff know.

Defense rests.

We continue to [mostly] talk past each other on this. I'm arguing RPI is bad and should not be used or tweaked or only be a very small part of the equation when comparing teams when someone (the committee) needs to compare teams. You keep coming back to IIWII and this year our staff let us down by scheduling soft. Nobody seems to know why we scheduled soft; but the consensus seems to be because they suck at their jobs. I have a hard time going there.

 

[senoiajacket]

Looking at those metrics, it’s hard to see how they are not done. And they aren’t even in the right conference.

while I agree that it’s hard to judge motivation, it seems like a lock that UVA will not be throwing any of their top arms today.

Well, shows how little I know