THWG
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I honestly can't believe that we have had 0 quadrant 1 games at home. I feel like NC State should be in that group.
2024 Season
- Thread starter gtbeak
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MWBATL
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This is about the point where my GT sports experience tells me that they will break my heart (again). Two ACC series wins in a row against ranked teams, getting back into possible post-season consideration, yeah...this feels like i felt when we were leading UGa 9-3 late.....this is where we'll blow some leads and crater my heart (again).
Sure hope I'm wrong this time.
Sure hope I'm wrong this time.
gtbeak
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This is why we need to root really hard for NC State going forward. They are really close to that top-25 spot that would make those quad 1 games. They are at 29 right now but briefly cracked the top-25 before losing the last game in the UNC series this past weekend.
I should note that, to my knowledge, baseball doesn't use the quad 1/2/3/4 stuff. That's a basketball thing that Warren Nolan has ported over since they do both, but I've never heard anybody on the baseball selection committee refer to that in interviews after the selections are made. Still, the fact that it is posted somewhere means it probably has an effect, even if sub-conscious, so I'm all for NC State moving up.
What baseball does have that basketball doesn't is regional committees which rank the teams in their area and send that along to the national committee. I don't know who is on the regional committees, but the idea is that they know more about the nuances of the teams in their area and can highlight those for the national committee.
gtbeak
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I can't see 14-16 doing anything for us. I even question if 15-15 would be enough. As to the tournament, the D1Baseball guys don't put much emphasis on those. Same goes for mid-week games. Their philosophy is that baseball is a game played in 3 game series and anything outside of that format is only slightly interesting (Omaha being the exception, of course). I tend to agree with them, but will note that mid-week games have an impact on RPI (I think they would agree with that statement).
On that note, tonight's game is pretty big for RPI. Kennesaw St is actually ahead of us slightly at 52, so it is much more important than a normal mid-week game against Mercer or Georgia State or someone like that.
Techcaster572
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I agree completely with this as I'm not sure even a 15-15 acc record puts us in; however, I truly believe if we go 16-14, we are most certainly in the tournament.
As for tonight's game, it is huge as you are correct on RPI and KSU sitting at 52 (5 spots above us) and they have mentioned in early tourney projections to make tournament. I truly hope we get the chance to replay the rained-out game from a few weeks back. Also, just because we left Hooville doesn't mean we can relax pitching wise. This KSU team absolutely whipped Clemson on the road earlier this year 18-1 so we need to bring our "A" game tonight imo. Most likely will see Carson on the bump tonight. Btw- Is Cam Hill no longer an option especially against left-handed hitters where he seems to be the most effective?
Not to continue the point about the RPI but the RPI that has us at 57 still has us losing to uga at home for the Cool Ray field game. I would think that since Uga is 11 in RPI, that correction would at least bump us up 2-3 slots. Edit: Never mind as I see the RPI has been corrected to reflect the updated changes of a neutral site loss. Man, what could've been if we held on to that 9-3 lead against the mutts going to the 7th. Hold on to win that game and we may well be top 50 in RPI with an overall record of 25-13. Ugghhh....
Also, here are some major problems with the RPI.
What matters more
1) Conference record
2) Overall record
3) Home/Road record
4) SOS
Some examples that just make little sense
San Diego is 31 in RPI
Overall record- 26-12 with a SOS of 89
ND is 38
20-18
5-16 ACC
Sos - 23
Auburn is 44 in RPI (this is the head scratcher)
Overall record- 19-20
2-16 Sec
SOS 2
Ohio State is 51 in RPI
19-17 overall
SOS- 40
KSU is 52
Overall record 22-16
SOS-76
My point is what really matters....So auburn gets credit for a losing record and a horrendous Sec record because of SOS at 2 so I guess winning isn't the most important stat for RPI. Tech has a brutal schedule for football, will it matter if they can't win the games....
Same with ND
SOS doesn't seem to matter for San Diego obviously as they are only two wins better than tech in the loss column but 36 spots higher in RPI
So if SOS matters so much, if we perform 6-6 over the last 12 conference games based on the level of competition we face, we should be catapult up the RPI rankings, no?
Tech is 57
Overall record 24-14
9-9 acc
66 SOS
With Basketball, you have a losing conference record and you won't be making it into the tournament.
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senoiajacket
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Now, can we somehow go back and revise where we didn’t blow a 6 run lead in the last 3 innings …….. that would do wonders for our RPI. (Asking for a friend)
gtbeak
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Great post, thanks for the examples. I'll take a shot at answering, but can't say I'll be 100% on this. Sorry for really long post.
#1, remember my basic RPI comment, which is that RPI is just math. It doesn't have an agenda or a bias, it's just math. The formula is (Win%*0.25)+(OppWin%*0.5)+OppOppWin%*0.25). The win% aren't just the standard (in our case) 24/38=0.632, but rather home wins are discounted by a 0.7 multiplier and road wins are inflated by a 1.3 multiplier. Mathematically this causes problems because a win by the home team results in a combined record for the two teams of 0.7 wins and 0.7 losses = 1.4 games played while a win by the road team is 1.3 wins +1.3 losses = 2.6 games played. If at the end of the season the win% of the home team is not exactly .500 then the total number of apparent games played at the end of the season will not equal the total number of games actually played. That is my main complaint about the formula.
To your question about what matters more, the answer is #2, #3, and opponents win %. #1 is totally irrelevant, RPI isn't aware conferences even exist. #4 is an output from the RPI formula, not an input.
To your examples....
San Diego: They have a better basic record than us (26-12 v 24-14), but more importantly they have played 24 of 38 games on the road. And they have done well in those 24 games, so their adjusted record is a really good 27.5-10.2. In essence, take 1 or 2 of their losses and make them wins just because they have played a bunch of true road games. Our adjusted record is 21.0-13.7, or in other words take 3 of our wins at random and pretend they never happened as a penalty for us playing over 60% of our games at home.
Notre Dame: As San Diego does, they take advantage of the road win inflation, also playing 24 of their games on the road. They haven't been quite as successful, but that does adjust their record to 20.0 - 15.0, so randomly toss out 3 of their losses. Our adjusted record is still a game better than theirs. Of the top 7 teams in the ACC they have played 5 (going 0-15), whereas we have played 4, so I have to assume that this paired with playing most of their non-conference games on the road help them in the calculation.
Auburn: Just what you said, play a really tough schedule and get credited for at least winning a couple of them. They have played RPI #1, #2, #3, and #6, posting a 2-10 record in those games. I agree with you that there shouldn't be any such thing as a good loss, but since 75% of the formula is not about you but rather your opponent, they are taking advantage of this. Over time and enough games this should even out, but a 60 game college schedule may not be enough for that to happen. Still, to my knowledge no SEC team has made the NCAA tournament without making the SEC tournament, so I think they will be left out unless they can rally in the next month.
Ohio St: See the explanation above about road win inflation, their adjusted record is 19.6-15.2, basically the same as Notre Dame. They also managed to avoid scheduling the REALLY, REALLY BAD teams. They only have 1 game against sub-200 RPI schools (Cal St - Fullerton!!!!) and only 2 other games against sub-150 RPI teams. IOW, nearly all their games have been against schools respected by the RPI. By comparison, we have played 8 games against sub-200 schools and 3 more against sub-150 RPI schools.
Kennesaw State: They also take advantage of the road win inflation. Their adjusted record is 23.2-13.6, which is 2 full wins better than ours. Plus they took a series @ Kentucky. That is probably the single biggest series win by any school in the country this year.
If we go 6-6 the rest of the way, yes, I expect our RPI will rise unless we couple that with losing all our mid-week games and get swept in the ACC tourney.
My advice to Coach Hall for next season would be to #1, avoid scheduling 3 schools the caliber of Youngstown St, Radford, and Cornell. One is probably OK, but not three. #2, look for a way to schedule one of the pre-conference weekend series on the road. I'm not sure exactly how to do this, and it may not work financially, but what if we played an early season series at Troy or App State or Western Carolina. Schools we should be able to beat, but that would not kill our RPI and would give us some road inflated wins.
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GT33
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GT PTSD. It’s untreatable.
Home Park Jacket
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What's the best treatment?
GT33
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Whiskey clear is the only painkiller I know that works. Beer is good also, but makes you fat.
CEB
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I don’t think that’s fair to beer. I have made the transition almost entirely to whisky…. So something else must be doing it.
Techcaster572
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Outstanding break down Gtbeak.
I just feel the road inflation is weighted too heavily imo as I don't see road games as tough in baseball as it is in other sports so I think that should have less impact (Formula wise) than it's currently given credit for....With all that being said, I give Tech a ton of credit winning the uva series on the road. My point is that if you beat the # 10 team in the country, you should be given big time credit whether its on the road or at home. The uva crowd certainly isn't the most indimating. I've been to multiple road acc venues and fsu, with the animals (that's how they refer to their baseball fan base) is a bit loud but road games just aren't that intimidating. Biggest factor on the road is the home team hits last which i believe to be a huge luxury in an equally matched series. Heck uga usually draws twice as many fans as we do and that venue is not the least bit intimidating at foley field.
I agree the computer doesn't give or take away credit for conference record however that plays pretty big with the committee so I don't know you'd incorporate that.
I agree about playing better competition. That's the biggest reason Florida , who has struggled mightily lately, is still top 30 in RPI because of their early season scheduling.
I didn't realize Youngston State was winless when we played them and by sweeping them four straight, it actually only hurt us vs helping us making them 0-14 I believe.
The rule of winning baseball in the majors is take 2 of 3. Win 66% of your games in the majors and you are a 107 win team and likely win your division and are the # 1 seed.
In college baseball, it's completely different. When you add in RPI to that, losing the one game we did on Sunday to Cornell was crushing even though we took 2 of 3 from them.
There is little to no benefit to play the lesser ranked teams especially, as you mention, at home. Play them on the road or schedule better teams at home. Heck, try and get Tech into a tournament somewhere in the southeast.
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FredJacket
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Good post @gtbeak
You're exactly right... RPI is math. I have no problem with math. Math is cool.
What's not cool is using the current... way too flawed RPI formula... as the primary tool to sort out post-season at-large bids to the tournament. As you point out... & my 2 biggest issues with the math...
1) the home/road weights are too big
2) a team's own record is not weighted enough
It seems so obvious to me. IF the system used for racking & stacking teams for the post-season literally incentivizes top end P5 teams to cancel games (not play THE baseball games) because win or lose they suffer according to the math... you absolutely HAVE TO address it. It continues to happen & everyone seems to just throw their hands up like nothing can be done.
As promised... here's a link to Massey's composite for baseball. Close to 9 different rankings or ratings listed as of now... across all except RPI (#61 when massey pulled it), Ga Tech is as high as #28. The low is #39.
You're exactly right... RPI is math. I have no problem with math. Math is cool.
What's not cool is using the current... way too flawed RPI formula... as the primary tool to sort out post-season at-large bids to the tournament. As you point out... & my 2 biggest issues with the math...
1) the home/road weights are too big
2) a team's own record is not weighted enough
It seems so obvious to me. IF the system used for racking & stacking teams for the post-season literally incentivizes top end P5 teams to cancel games (not play THE baseball games) because win or lose they suffer according to the math... you absolutely HAVE TO address it. It continues to happen & everyone seems to just throw their hands up like nothing can be done.
As promised... here's a link to Massey's composite for baseball. Close to 9 different rankings or ratings listed as of now... across all except RPI (#61 when massey pulled it), Ga Tech is as high as #28. The low is #39.
Massey Ratings - College Baseball Rankings
College Baseball computer rankings and polls, weekly composite
masseyratings.com
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senoiajacket
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^^^^^ THIS ^^^^^^^^
Three Quarters of the RPI formula a team has no control over once the schedule is set. Not counting the ACC tournament, we have 30 conference games that we have no control over as far as scheduling goes and 25 non-conference games. Not sure how far in advance the non-conference games are scheduled, but once they are locked in they are what they are.
It just seems logical if you are ranking teams at least half (if not 2/3) of their ranking should be determined by if the actually won games.
bensaysitathome
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I don't mind RPI, as long as it's taken for what it is. Effectively a strength of schedule, but with extra steps. My problem is the committee/media seem to lean on it as the holy grail come selection time. It's one tool (of many) to evaluate the many teams that don't play each other.
FredJacket
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It's not taken for what it is.
bensaysitathome
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Fair.
I don't have an issue with RPI as a tool. I have an issue with how much weight it holds.
GT33
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You look at the Massey ratings, all seem to be roughly in line with how other teams played us. K St's like Ga St, Mercer, Southern, Pitt. ACC teams look pretty well placed. Then there's the RPI. I never really paid any attention to it before but this year it's a really bad rating system. Have no idea if it was bad last year too, but this year it's a joke.
FredJacket
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"If it's a joke any year... it's a joke every year"
- George P Burdell (circa [pick a year])
CINCYMETJACKET
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We used to do this. I recall home and home series against UCLA when I was in graduate school, as well as tournaments against highly ranked teams such as Rice & Nebraska one year when both teams had pitchers with first round draft talent, Coastal Carolina and South Carolina in Myrtle Beach when Mike Nickeas was a freshman. We used to play these early season games against quality teams. Don't know why they stopped doing so.