2021 USMNT World Cup Qualification

CINCYMETJACKET

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slugboy said:
For 2nd, 3rd, or 4th in the qualifying group. We have to rely on Canada tripping to come in first. The better we do, the better our group in the World Cup should be.

Also, while having a magic number of "win every one of your four remaining games, including Mexico and two other contenders" is controlling your own destiny to come in second the way you describe, it's not comfortable.

In the past few times we made the World Cup--unlike the last fiasco--we've been assigned to a murder group that's hard to get into the second round from. Your worldwide ranking influences how you get sorted. We've lost two games, and we really shouldn't have lost any. So, coming in 3rd or 4th could also mean "Congrats! You start with Germany and Argentina".
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We control our own destiny at this point for World Cup qualifying. The top 3 teams in CONCACAF are automatic qualifiers in the World Cup. The fourth team has to play a win or don't get in game against a team from the Oceania region.

I don't think it matters what place we finish in qualifying, as long as we qualify. The top seeds in the World Cup are set by world ranking, which shouldn't change much based on CONCACAF qualifying games. Based on the FIFA rankings from 12/23/21, the USA was #11, Mexico was #14, and Canada was #40. They will be updated in the next week or so, I believe. Perhaps they'll move Canada up a little higher, but I can't imagine that they'll jump ahead of the USA or Mexico based on a recent home win and a road draw against each in qualifying.

After the host country and the next top 7 qualifiers, teams are put into pots that are drawn as to which group they will compete in. So, unless we're one of the top 7 teams in the world, which we're not, we're just as likely to end up in #5 Argentina's group as Canada or Mexico is, regardless whether we finish 1st or 3rd. Just qualify!
 

gtphd

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Agreed. Just qualify.

The challenge is Mexico and Costa Rica away, where we usually lose. So that puts a lot of pressure on home vs Panama.
 
Techster

Techster

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Our best DMid, and easily one of our best players in the current pool, Weston McKennie is out due to injury in Champions League play. Big loss there.

On the bright side, Pulisic looks to be rounding into dangerous form again. When he's in form, he's easily our best player and best attacker. Brendan Aaronson is playing like he belongs in a higher tier Euro league.

Bottom line is this: USA should easily be in on talent alone, but we find ourselves still sweating to earn points to qualify. If we fail to qualify, USA soccer needs to be torn down from the roots and start over again. This team has WAY too much talent in one of the weakest regions. Berhalter needs to quit being cute with his decisions.

First game will tell us a LOT as we take on the only team in our region that rivals our talent and investment in soccer.
 
slugboy

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On one hand—in most cycles, we’d have enough points already, or nearly so

On the other—this year we don’t yet, and we need to beat down Mexico, Costa Rica, and Panama to get breathing room

Should we qualify? Yes

Can we blow this? Also yes
 

gtphd

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As an Italian, I can tell you that it takes more than talent to qualify. But then again, we now field a striker from MLS, so who knows.

USMNT is fine. They’re second in the octagonal. Is there a path to not qualify? Sure but all signs point to qualification. It’s not practical to plan for 3 points every match.
 

CINCYMETJACKET

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gtphd said:
As an Italian, I can tell you that it takes more than talent to qualify. But then again, we now field a striker from MLS, so who knows.

USMNT is fine. They’re second in the octagonal. Is there a path to not qualify? Sure but all signs point to qualification. It’s not practical to plan for 3 points every match.
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Yeah, I suspect that's what everyone thought when all we had to do was beat Trinidad and Tobago to qualify for the last world cup. I won't consider things "fine" until we're in.
 

gtphd

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All true, but I still remember T&T. There's a non-zero chance that both Italy and the US will not qualify a second time in a row. Luckily, as a Tech fan, I'm numb to this level of disappointment.
 
gtrower

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mario-sad.gif
 
slugboy

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Good news at El Azteca: The Mexican home crowd was booing at the end of the game
The bad (meh) news: the USMNT managed a 0-0 tie in a game they could have won.
The other bad news: Tim Weah picked up his second yellow of qualification, and is out the next game against Panama. Weah is a difference-maker. A bunch of players (including Miles) picked up yellows in the game, so another yellow leads to a game suspension.
Costa Rica beat Canada and moves into 4th, right behind Mexico. Panama tied Honduras, which was a win they needed, but not as good as a loss.
Five teams are in contention
1. Canada (25)
2. USA (22)
3. Mexico (22)
4. Costa Rica (19)
5. Panama (18)
No one has clinched a world cup berth. Canada is really close. A win against Panama on Sunday would put the US in really good position. Mexico, Canada, and Costa Rica play three of the weakest teams left in the CONCACAF qualifiers.

Yesterday Mexico’s overall team was stronger. They had control for most of the game. The USA was more dangerous, and could have won the match on Mexico’s home turf. This team just needs a little more depth.


Man, if we can just keep Gio Reyna on the field:





Puslic has to put these away:


But this was worse (Pefok with the missed goal):



 
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gtphd

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I’ll take the point on the road. But, yeah, Pulisic and Pefok should have both scored. Those were the only good chances all game for either team.

If the US ties Panama on Sunday, the US is guaranteed a top 4 finish and effectively a top 3 because the goal differential is so high. The doomsday scenarios requires the US to lose both remaining games. It’s not impossible, but not likely.
 
slugboy

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After tonight’s game against Panama, Team USA has secured at least 4th, and is currently in 2nd with a huge goal differential. Panama is out. Costa Rica needs to beat the USA by 6 to move ahead of them (I’m not sure why it’s not 11, but ¯\_(ツ)_/¯). Costa Rica's best shot is to beat the US by at least 3 (??) and have Mexico lose to El Salvador (which isn't happening).
The USMNT is going to Costa Rica and will play to win. They'll have Tim Weah and a number of other players who had to sit out the game against Panama.
Hats off to Canada, 'eh? They're the class of North American futbol.
BAA74274-1D04-4807-8E8F-8E545EDB9F32.jpeg
 

gtphd

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Costa Rica needs to win by 6 to pass the US. Every point they score against the US counts twice (once increasing CRs goal differential and once decreasing the US goal differential). Why 6 and not 5? US is ahead on GF which is the next tie breaker.

And even in that monumentally unlikely case, the US still gets to play New Zealand or the Solomon Islands for a bid.

But its going to be a fun game to watch. CR will throw everything at the US and the US will counter-attack hard all game.
 
MidtownJacket

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gtphd said:
Costa Rica needs to win by 6 to pass the US. Every point they score against the US counts twice (once increasing CRs goal differential and once decreasing the US goal differential). Why 6 and not 5? US is ahead on GF which is the next tie breaker.

And even in that monumentally unlikely case, the US still gets to play New Zealand or the Solomon Islands for a bid.

But its going to be a fun game to watch. CR will throw everything at the US and the US will counter-attack hard all game.
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I am most excited about seeing what we do to try to bring quick counters - I 100% agree that this is going to be a game with many shots on goal.
 
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