2021 USMNT World Cup Qualification

forensicbuzz

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Varies by confederation. In UEFA, you’re matched in a subgroup and 1 team makes it. So Italy (world #6) has to play Portugal (world #8). 1 makes it. Meanwhile Wales (world #18) has Scotland (world #38). 1 makes it.

In CONCACAF, there are 8 teams that play round robin (home and away) and the best 3 make it (4th place has a play-in game against Oceana- probably New Zealand world #110). World rankings of the bottom 4 in that group are #49, #57, #69, and #76.
CONCACAF has 41 members. How do they determine the 8 teams for the round robin?

Are we really World #12?
 

gtphd

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Yes, USMNT is #12. Do they deserve it? If everyone is healthy and available, yes. The last few windows has had many injuries.

CONCACAF had 35 eligible teams. Top 5 in FIFA ranking on June 2020 received automatic bids to the final round. The other 30 teams played a 2 round tournament for the final 3 spots (including Canada who now leads the octagonal).
 

gtphd

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So, we are halfway through the Final Round? USA, Canada, Mexico, and Panama in the lead?
More than half. (8 of 14 complete). Canada + USA + Mexico slated to advance and Panama to the play-in game.

If you listen to the data scientists that gives the US an 85% chance of top 3 and advancing, 14% of play-in vs Oceana and 1% chance of elimination.
 

slugboy

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More than half. (8 of 14 complete). Canada + USA + Mexico slated to advance and Panama to the play-in game.

If you listen to the data scientists that gives the US an 85% chance of top 3 and advancing, 14% of play-in vs Oceana and 1% chance of elimination.
I’ve watched too, too, too many years to feel comfortable with this teams position. I watched us miss the last Olympics, partially because we lost a game we shouldn’t have lost, and we lost games before the elimination game that we shouldn’t have lost. The USMNT should have a more comfortable lead in points by now. They’re at the lower end of winning percentage for a US team that moves on.
 

ilovetheoption

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I’ve watched too, too, too many years to feel comfortable with this teams position. I watched us miss the last Olympics, partially because we lost a game we shouldn’t have lost, and we lost games before the elimination game that we shouldn’t have lost. The USMNT should have a more comfortable lead in points by now. They’re at the lower end of winning percentage for a US team that moves on.
Have to disagree. 1.87 ppg qualifies comfortably every time.

We could lose at azteca and ice-teca and still qualify comfortably.

Panama has played better than their quality, but will come down to earth and our depth of talent is better than it has been in a while. We are built for tournaments in a way that nobody outside of Mexico is in concacaf
 

MWBATL

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What the ****? Italy is matched with Portugal in the World Cup playoff? So basically because Jorginho missed a penalty against Switzerland, Italy will probably miss the World Cup for a second year. Canada will make it but the champions of Europe and a top 5 FIFA team won’t for a second time. It will be 12 years at least between Italian appearances. Bull****.
Italy should have done better in their qualifying group. They were undefeated, yes, but they had 4 wins and 4 draws. It wasn't the draw against Switzerland that hurt them, but the draws against the likes of Northern Ireland and Bulgaria (that at home) cost them dearly. However, the playoffs are not a one game elimination, so they still have a good chance to going through.
 

forensicbuzz

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Italy should have done better in their qualifying group. They were undefeated, yes, but they had 4 wins and 4 draws. It wasn't the draw against Switzerland that hurt them, but the draws against the likes of Northern Ireland and Bulgaria (that at home) cost them dearly. However, the playoffs are not a one game elimination, so they still have a good chance to going through.
This is more of what I thought. They had 8 games to show out. They were luke warm. Play better.
 

gtphd

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Italy should have done better in their qualifying group. They were undefeated, yes, but they had 4 wins and 4 draws. It wasn't the draw against Switzerland that hurt them, but the draws against the likes of Northern Ireland and Bulgaria (that at home) cost them dearly. However, the playoffs are not a one game elimination, so they still have a good chance to going through.
The playoffs are exactly a 4 team / 1 game elimination tournament. Lose to North Macedonia and they're out. Beat North Macedonia and lose to Portugal and they're out. Beat North Macedonia and beat Portugal and they're in.

Only one of Italy and Portugal can make the World Cup finals.
 

gtphd

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Poland setting up a camp in the US for dual citizen youth

We want to monitor the American market closely. There we are planning a camp for April for the 30 most talented players from three young age groups selected by our scouts in the USA. It will be a two-day camp with the participation of Polish youth coaches. We want to take a look at this fry. They are footballers who play in the academies of MLS clubs and other clubs. There is a very high level of youth football in the United States right now, as can be seen from the number of American players in Europe. There are also many Polish "pearls". This is our development plan for the future.
 

gtphd

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soooooooo, Djordje Mihailovic? (i have no idea if he's even of polish stock. Sounds more Balkan, maybe, but I can't think of any others)
I think they're targeting U-12 and U-15 type talent. The idea is to identify and build relationships with talent before the US system does. It's a good sign of our youth talent that a European country is coming here to recruit.
 

slugboy

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Here’s the math as I understand it
  • 5 games left
  • 12 points (4 wins) are the magic number to qualify (top 3 finish)
  • 5 points locks in 4th and a play in game
  • Panama is in 4th, so their losses help us the most. Costa Rica is next, and Jamaica only has 7 points
  • One game each left against Canada (this Sunday), Mexico, and Panama. Other games are Costa Rica and Honduras (next Wednesday)
  • We have had issues finishing. This team is on the edge of either taking off and being dominant vs blowing games we shouldn’t blow.
  • Out of the top 4, Canada and Mexico don’t play each other again. USA and Panama both play the other teams in the top 4.
  • Panama is 4 points behind USA and seems to have the hardest plausible path other than Costa Rica.
  • US getting wins Sunday and Wednesday would be HUGE
 
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