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<blockquote data-quote="JacketOff" data-source="post: 749157" data-attributes="member: 4572"><p>2022 is definitely the year that I’ve got circled. I think it will be the first time that a trip back to Charlotte will be a legitimate goal. Year 3 is when most programs start to show signs of a turn around after a coaching change.</p><ul> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Minnesota went 12-13 in PJ Fleck’s first 2 years before going 11-2 in year 3</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Dabo went 19-15 in his first 2 full years + his half year as the interim coach at Clemson. Went 10-4 in his 3rd full year and haven’t won less than 10 since. </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Coach O went 6-2 as interim at LSU, 9-4 in his first full year, 10-3 in his 2nd full year, then 15-0 with a natty in his 3rd full year</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Saban won his first natty at Alabama in year 3 after a 7-6 campaign in year 1</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">James Franklin went 7-6 in his first 2 years at Penn State, then went 11-3 in year 3</li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Jim Harbaugh went 4-8 and 5-7 in years 1 & 2 at Stanford. Then went 8-5 in year 3, and finally 12-1 in year 4. </li> <li data-xf-list-type="ul">Hell, Paul Johnson was 10-15 after his first 2 years at Navy, then he went 10-2 in year 3.</li> </ul><p>I’m not saying that Tech will win the natty in 2022, or win 10 games next year. But the precedent is set, and programs that have had major turnarounds almost always the biggest differences in years 3 and 4. Keep in mind that most of those coaches I mentioned were traditional powerhouses schools, and were given blank checks to do as they wished. Collins doesn’t have that liberty at Tech. His budget is much more restricted than any of theirs. And whether you like it or not, transitioning out of the 3O plays a huge role in the transition as well. A bowl appearance next season should be well within expectations, and somewhere between 6-8 wins is what I think will be reasonable (I voted for 4-7 in this year’s preseason poll FWIW). Then 2022 in year 4 is when I’m hoping Tech can get back to the 10 win range, and stay at 8+ wins every year following.</p><p></p><p>Keep in mind that 2 teams within our own division are on this same track as well. Folks can point and laugh and call Miami a dumpster fire all they want, but they’re not going to be terrible forever. I don’t think they’ll ever get back to actually being Da U of the 90s, but they’re going to be a team that you can pencil in for 8+ wins every year with a shot at the ACCCG (like the level I’m hoping Tech gets to). UNC has potential to become a 2nd tier powerhouse as well (Wisconsin, Auburn, Oregon, etc.), but it will be made challenging because it’s known that they’ll have to make another hire sometime soon. They will be a consistent 8+ game winner as long as Mack stays, but they’ll need to make the right hire in order to hold their ground and not take 2 steps back after Mack finally retires for good.</p><p></p><p>All of that to say this: the road map is there. It’s been followed time and time again, by coaches and programs of all starting points, in all conferences. Some have more advantages than others, but years 3 and 4 are when the changes within the program finally start to take shape. I hope this year ends on a high note, and gives everyone something to build on going into a big year next year. If things don’t take a drastic turn in 2021, then I wouldn’t be opposed to maybe making some changes within the staff. Even if the schemes themselves don’t change that much, getting a new voice with some new ideas can make a world of difference. If we’re not close to winning 8 in 2022 then I’d be comfortable in saying the Collins is not the guy.</p></blockquote><p></p>
[QUOTE="JacketOff, post: 749157, member: 4572"] 2022 is definitely the year that I’ve got circled. I think it will be the first time that a trip back to Charlotte will be a legitimate goal. Year 3 is when most programs start to show signs of a turn around after a coaching change. [LIST] [*]Minnesota went 12-13 in PJ Fleck’s first 2 years before going 11-2 in year 3 [*]Dabo went 19-15 in his first 2 full years + his half year as the interim coach at Clemson. Went 10-4 in his 3rd full year and haven’t won less than 10 since. [*]Coach O went 6-2 as interim at LSU, 9-4 in his first full year, 10-3 in his 2nd full year, then 15-0 with a natty in his 3rd full year [*]Saban won his first natty at Alabama in year 3 after a 7-6 campaign in year 1 [*]James Franklin went 7-6 in his first 2 years at Penn State, then went 11-3 in year 3 [*]Jim Harbaugh went 4-8 and 5-7 in years 1 & 2 at Stanford. Then went 8-5 in year 3, and finally 12-1 in year 4. [*]Hell, Paul Johnson was 10-15 after his first 2 years at Navy, then he went 10-2 in year 3. [/LIST] I’m not saying that Tech will win the natty in 2022, or win 10 games next year. But the precedent is set, and programs that have had major turnarounds almost always the biggest differences in years 3 and 4. Keep in mind that most of those coaches I mentioned were traditional powerhouses schools, and were given blank checks to do as they wished. Collins doesn’t have that liberty at Tech. His budget is much more restricted than any of theirs. And whether you like it or not, transitioning out of the 3O plays a huge role in the transition as well. A bowl appearance next season should be well within expectations, and somewhere between 6-8 wins is what I think will be reasonable (I voted for 4-7 in this year’s preseason poll FWIW). Then 2022 in year 4 is when I’m hoping Tech can get back to the 10 win range, and stay at 8+ wins every year following. Keep in mind that 2 teams within our own division are on this same track as well. Folks can point and laugh and call Miami a dumpster fire all they want, but they’re not going to be terrible forever. I don’t think they’ll ever get back to actually being Da U of the 90s, but they’re going to be a team that you can pencil in for 8+ wins every year with a shot at the ACCCG (like the level I’m hoping Tech gets to). UNC has potential to become a 2nd tier powerhouse as well (Wisconsin, Auburn, Oregon, etc.), but it will be made challenging because it’s known that they’ll have to make another hire sometime soon. They will be a consistent 8+ game winner as long as Mack stays, but they’ll need to make the right hire in order to hold their ground and not take 2 steps back after Mack finally retires for good. All of that to say this: the road map is there. It’s been followed time and time again, by coaches and programs of all starting points, in all conferences. Some have more advantages than others, but years 3 and 4 are when the changes within the program finally start to take shape. I hope this year ends on a high note, and gives everyone something to build on going into a big year next year. If things don’t take a drastic turn in 2021, then I wouldn’t be opposed to maybe making some changes within the staff. Even if the schemes themselves don’t change that much, getting a new voice with some new ideas can make a world of difference. If we’re not close to winning 8 in 2022 then I’d be comfortable in saying the Collins is not the guy. [/QUOTE]
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