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2020 President Election Thread

Discussion in 'The Swarm Lounge' started by YellowJacketFan2018, Feb 2, 2020.

  1. YellowJacketFan2018

    YellowJacketFan2018 Helluva Engineer

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  2. Supersizethatorder-mutt

    Supersizethatorder-mutt Helluva Engineer

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  3. bwelbo

    bwelbo Helluva Engineer

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  4. armeck

    armeck Ramblin' Wreck

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  5. bwelbo

    bwelbo Helluva Engineer

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    Its higher than Obama's was at this point in his Presidency. I suspect higher than for Bush too. It happens.
     
    jayparr, Sidewalking, THWG and 2 others like this.
  6. armeck

    armeck Ramblin' Wreck

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    It's about +2 pts in Obama's 3rd year, FEB. Not really relevant though, as I would call that (Obama's 47%) also pretty weak.
     
  7. Sidewalking

    Sidewalking Banned

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    The Sanders faithful could become unglued. It was apparent last time with the super delegates that the DNC primaries were rigged against him. If the DNC does it yet again the hardcore socialists and Antifa types could turn against the DNC. The DNC also risks having his supporters just remain home when the general election vote comes.
     
  8. Sidewalking

    Sidewalking Banned

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    What's the approval rate for Congress?
     
  9. armeck

    armeck Ramblin' Wreck

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    If I had to guess, it would be:

    Other People's Sen's and Rep's: 10%
    My Sen and Rep: 90%

    Everybody hates Congress, but incumbents keep on winning...
     
  10. ramblinwreckguru

    ramblinwreckguru Helluva Engineer

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    I don't know. This is more of a relative poll. Would like to see the average approval rating across all Presidents that we have poll records on.
     
  11. bwelbo

    bwelbo Helluva Engineer

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    Sorry for not formatting this any better, but I just don't feel like spending time on it.

    Screen Shot 2020-02-04 at 1.44.53 PM.png Screen Shot 2020-02-04 at 1.43.09 PM.png Screen Shot 2020-02-04 at 1.42.50 PM.png Screen Shot 2020-02-04 at 1.42.10 PM.png Screen Shot 2020-02-04 at 1.41.46 PM.png Screen Shot 2020-02-04 at 1.41.09 PM.png Screen Shot 2020-02-04 at 1.40.13 PM.png
     
  12. JacketRacket

    JacketRacket Helluva Engineer

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    538 has this where you can compare Trump's approval rating at this point vs any president that they have the data for. Trump's is unique since it has had much less volatility than any other iirc.

    Goes back to Truman. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?ex_cid=rrpromo
     
  13. armeck

    armeck Ramblin' Wreck

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    Trump supporters like him as much as they did when he was elected, his detractors dislike him as much as they did when he was elected. Seems like nothing he can do swings the needle for him or against him. But can he win again on just a hair under 50% approval?
     
  14. JacketRacket

    JacketRacket Helluva Engineer

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    Yeah, I would like to see the approval polls on a state by state basis. Cause he can win again with less than 50% approval if the electoral math shakes out. It doesn't matter if america likes him as a whole, it really only matters if people from the right states like him.
     
  15. armeck

    armeck Ramblin' Wreck

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    As I recall, there were several states that he barely won, which could swing back. With 'winner take all' format of the the electoral college, Trump could win again while still just barely eking out victories in the swing states. Or, also lose them just as well. Really small margin of error here.
     
    Sidewalking likes this.
  16. bwelbo

    bwelbo Helluva Engineer

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    His current approval ratings are several percentage points higher than when he was elected. So that would imply his path to victory is much easier right now. But that doesn't take into account 2 important things:
    1) Who he ends up running against.
    2) A state-by-state breakdown of these types of polls, accounting for (1).
     
  17. armeck

    armeck Ramblin' Wreck

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    His approval rate did not go up as much as his disapproval rate though. Just seems like everyone has made up their minds by now.
     
  18. Lotta Juice

    Lotta Juice Helluva Engineer

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    I believe it was about 78k votes across 3 states (PA, WI, MI) that delivered the election. Small margin.
     
  19. bwelbo

    bwelbo Helluva Engineer

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    That of course is a pretty biased perspective IMO. Trump lost Minnesota by 1.5%. His margin of victory in Colorado was less than what the Libertarian candidate took. He lost Nevada by 27k votes (over 1 million votes cast). He lost Maine by 22k votes (800k votes cast) when the Libertarian candidate took 38k votes. With Trump being a world class *******, I will always view his route to the Presidency as being extremely tough. You've basically got to get a lot of people that think of him like fingernails on a chalkboard but the economy is good and he was framed by the opposition party. No matter how deserving someone's stats might be, the personality is still highly influencial. But 2016 without much luck could have gone to Hillary. It also without much luck could have been 35 states to 15 for Trump instead of the 30 to 20 it was.
     
  20. mts315

    mts315 Helluva Engineer

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    I have a feeling that Sanders supporters are going to stay home if he is not the nominee no matter how that comes to pass, legit or not. Sanders supporters are want a revolution and a fundamental change of how America was formed and operates, they are not going to turn out for Biden or Bloomberg which are the status quo Bernie's supporters eyes.
     

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