2016 Class Analysis + Player Ranking

Mechaniik

Georgia Tech Fan
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(post split into two parts because of character limit)

Class Analysis


Now that the 2016 class is finished I thought it would be interesting to assess it both in comparison with previous classes and in terms of its relationship to its peers this year. Firstly, though I would just like to point out that what follows should be taken with a grain of salt; even the best staffs routinely miss in recruiting, and players develop in unexpected ways.

One thing that was very good about this class was the number of good P5 offers, far higher than some previous classes, especially taking into account the slightly smaller than average size of this years class. For instance, going by rivals (who are largely correct, although many offers are only committable on certain conditions, such as committing immediately, playing a position which the player doesn't favour etc) this year tech has players with the following elite P5 offers (that is, somewhat arbitrarily, from schools who were in the top-15 of this years recruiting rankings):

1. Parker Braun - Auburn, Florida, Mississippi, Ohio State, Tennessee
2. Emmanuel Bridges - Alabama, Clemson, Mississippi, Tennessee
3. Steve Dolphus - Florida
4. Xavier Gantt - Ohio State
5. Jair Hawkins-Anderson - Georgia, Tennessee
6. Jay Jones - Alabama, Florida, Auburn,
7. Dedrick Mills - Alabama, Auburn, Florida State, Tennessee
8. Jordan Woods - Florida, Florida State, Georgia, Tennessee

That's 8/18, a fairly solid number.

Now compare that to 2015's class, which was one of the best in recent years:

1. Victor Alexander - Florida, UCLA
2. Tyler Cooksey - Tennessee
3. Brentavious Glanton - Tennessee
4. Mikell Lands-Davis - Tennesee
5. Brant Mitchell - Tennesee
6. Anree Saint-Amour - Mississippi, Ohio State, Tennessee

That's only 6-26 (not including Jaylen Ratliffe, who, for what it's worth, only had offers from North Carolina and NC State).

I also believe that the number of prospects on these lists whose offers were either dubious or only valid for a very limited period of time is roughly similar, and 2015 also benefited from Tennessee's policy of early-offering anything that moved and/or played high school football.

However, that isn't to say that 2016's class is necessarily any better than 2015's, indeed it is clear that several players who purely from a rankings standpoint weren't that highly valued, for instance Mitchell, Marshall, Tq Marshal, Bryant, Gray (these last two could have had a lot more offers had they not committed when they did) have been real hits. Equally, the fact that the class was much larger than this years gives the a certain degree of safety in numbers.

Overall I think that this years class is about equal to last year's class on a per-player basis, though that class was larger and thus may be better overall. Still I think it was an impressive recruiting achievement following a 3-9 season, and a real display of the benefits of staff continuity in fighting off 'bigger' schools.
 

Mechaniik

Georgia Tech Fan
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50
Player Rankings

Enough about the class as a whole, how would I rank the individual players? Bear in mind that I am comparing to the average power 5 recruit (in my minds eye, a high 3-star with about 5-6 p5 offers), which is a very high standard - they all have good highlights tapes and are all physically impressive. One proviso is that I am talking about the average recruit given the scheme of the college which signed them, that is, someone who is an above average tackle recruit for Georgia mightn't be for us and vice-versa (this is, I think less of a factor on defense, where our scheme is more standard/closer to the norm).

To aid comparison, here are a few of the decent p5 players I am talking about, chosen randomly from the high 3-star ranks.


Jaren Hall - #20 Dual Threat QB, committed to BYU.


Cameron Williams - #80 Wide Receiver, committed to TCU (junior tape).


Jordan Smith - #35 Weakside Defensive End, committed to Florida.

Note: For each player, I will give a brief scouting report and sometimes a projection then a link to their - preferably senior year - highlights. I will also show which players I believe to above average p5 recruits, which to be roughly average, and which to be below average. As always with such things, I am sure I will be wrong about multiple players, and perhaps even the majority. Additionally, I haven't counted Jaylen Ratliffe, because, although on scholarship, his medical situation is still unclear.

Without any further ado, then, the rankings:

Above average p5 prospects:

1. Dedrick Mills - a recruit I love, I think he has really good burst, balance and agility as well as natural talent as a running back, is probably lacking in long-speed, which might make him more Maurice Jones-Drew than Adrian Peterson (prove me right, Dedrick!).

Highlights : http://www.hudl.com/athlete/1495850/highlights

2. Parker Braun - An OL with great strength and speed, as well as good balance and agility, had some really good offers.



3. Desmond Branch - A player whose strengths are in the most important areas (hands, burst, change-of-direction and agility) and weaknesses in unimportant ones (long speed, elite strength), Branch looked really good against tough JUCO competition. Looks like a slightly larger KeShun Freeman.



4. Jordan Wood - In some ways the opposite of Branch, has really good strength and is difficult to move, has good burst, but sometimes is a little stiff and plays too high. Still, should be a really good presence on the interior of the defensive line.



5. Jay Jones - In my view the natural heir-apparent to Thomas, showed elite athleticism and arm-strength in 6A Alabama football. To me appears to be a mix of Thomas and Nesbitt - i.e. faster but smaller than Nesbitt yet larger and slower than Thomas; better arm than Thomas but less accurate yet a worse arm and more accuracy than Nesbitt. Also looks to have a quick release, great agility and good hand-eye coordination, imo three of the most important characteristics in a TO quarterback.



6. Xavier Gantt - doesn't have elite speed, is a little small, but has great agility, balance and core strength. The question is: will he be able to get past the first defender consistently so that he can find the space to use his agility and balance one-on-one? I think he will.



Roughly average p5 prospects

7. Brandon Adams - good player, good burst and strength, not elite in either category but has a p5 frame and could surprise. Shawn Green would be a good comparison, although he is larger.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O76jsVuHX9Q

8. Steve Dolphus - I really like Dolphus, has good speed for a larger wide receiver, good hands and is a natural catcher of the ball. However large wide receivers often struggle, and it separation from DBs is something of a question mark. Still, I think he can be a really good player, especially with some time to grow into his body.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=op3p9SDpH0Q

9. Jakob Brashear - Good, instinctual football player, good agility and burst - but are they good enough for a player of his size? I'm honestly not sure, and can see him being anywhere from a really good player to a bad one. Perhaps the best comparison would be a smaller Brant Mitchell.

http://www.hudl.com/athlete/2980504/highlights/289166385/v2

10. Emanuel Bridges - Similar to Brashear, perhaps a bit less instinctual and with a bit more speed, but the question remains, are his physical talents sufficient for a player of his size. Like Brashear, I'm not sure, film reminded me a little of Chaz Cheeks, albeit with better tackling.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oYPW3stcs6I

11. Ajani Kerr - didn't get much recruiting attention, despite being on a team with lots of prospects, so other teams coaches can't have thought very much of him. At the same time, he has great length for a cornerback prospect, is physical and has really good hips, the only question being his long speed. If he doesn't get beat deep too much, I can imagine him being a really good player, and I can see why the coaches took him.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hOWCwN-imUQ

12. Kenny Cooper - Good player, reminds me of a less agile Trey Klock, good scheme take and good size for a triple option center/tackle. Speed is very good for the position, but might have problems against defensive tackles due to lack of a solid base.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QNkhg0ixIRE

Below average p5 prospects

12. Jahaziel Lee - I think he could be a very good TO O-lineman, as his weakest qualities - agility and change of direction - aren't as important at that position as at defensive line - and his size and speed should shine through. Still, he is a project, needs to gain quite a lot of weight, and will play a different position from high school, so the majority of p5 prospects look better at the moment. I can definitely see why the staff took him, though.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tp9rGsJkhrk

13. Lucas Johnson - I actually think he looks a pretty good prospect, and is IMO a more accurate quarterback than Jones. However I don't believe that he is the type of QB who does well in the triple option, as he is something of a long-strider and has a slow release. I'm not sure he will thrive making quick decisions in the running game and he will likely be caught in the backfield too often for the offense to be efficient. Reminds me of Vad Lee with less long speed.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_6iwoSlI0ew

14. Chris Martin

We took him early, so he must have impressed at camp, and he is a good high-school player, with good burst, hands and agility. However he does not have elite burst and is small for the position - there are many p5 prospects who do the things he does well, but also have those characteristics, so I am not really convinced.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=peVsdLD582c

15. Jarrett Cole - I think Cole will be a decent spot player, and could start if needs be as he has good burst and reads plays well. However he doesn't have any length, is mediocre in terms of range and against elite athletes (i.e. most p5 recruits) he will struggle tackling and in coverage. Reminds me a little of Corey Griffin.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0A8RQT9--ms

16. Jair Hawkins-Anderson - I actually quite like him as a prospect, he has good hands, good agility and good long speed. His only problem is that his immediate burst and core strength, two of the most important attributes for skill position players, seem to me to be sub-par. Still he has good hips and could be a good punt-returner. Could possibly be a good corner? He reminds me a little of a slightly larger Embry Peeples/Marcus Wright.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YrDMwTCh2iQ

17. Jalen Camp - he is a very hard working player who has likely already maximized his physical potential, which, along with his hands, is one of his two positive attributes. However he is slow for a WR and doesn't have elite size so decent p5 corners will blanket him. Our only recruit who I definitely wouldn't have taken (prove me wrong, Jalen!).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KL8DwFNriL0

Conclusion

So, all things considered, Tech looks to have a pretty decent class, roughly average for power 5 schools, which would mean around 32/33rd in the country (there are 65 p5 schools, including Notre Dame), which, considering the season they just had, and the fact that Tech has an offense which is difficult to prepare for (the old 'schematic advantage' ; )), represents a pretty good job by the Tech coaches and recruiting staff.

How would you rank our commits and recruiting effort? How do you think the class which Tech ultimately got compared with the range of possible outcomes? Which prospects do you think are most 'boom or bust', which can be projected relatively easily? I'd be interested to hear your thoughts, and Go Jackets!

P.S. Just to re-emphasise this, I think the vast majority of our commits are really good football players, and all were great high school football players, but that is true for most other schools too, and they have their highlight tapes too! Anyway, I'm sure more than a few of those listed above will surprise.
 

SidewalkJacket

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17. Jalen Camp - he is a very hard working player who has likely already maximized his physical potential, which, along with his hands, is one of his two positive attributes. However he is slow for a WR and doesn't have elite size so decent p5 corners will blanket him. Our only recruit who I definitely wouldn't have taken (prove me wrong, Jalen!).



GREAT work! These are the kind of posts I come to this site for. However, I completely disagree on Camp. I don't think he's maximized out his physical potential at all. He may grow into a LB/S hybrid type player, or just be a monstrously strong WR. I am not worried about his speed in the least. Smelter was not super fast, nor was DT before him. Corners blanket guys who can't run routes. Now, Camp may or may not turn into a great route runner, but he's got all the tools to get separation (just maybe not on a straight fly route). I think this guy's potential is through the roof, especially after reading coaches' quotes and finding out his football inexperience. I pegged him as one that I think may get on the field sooner than later.
 

AE 87

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GREAT work! These are the kind of posts I come to this site for. However, I completely disagree on Camp. I don't think he's maximized out his physical potential at all. He may grow into a LB/S hybrid type player, or just be a monstrously strong WR. I am not worried about his speed in the least. Smelter was not super fast, nor was DT before him. Corners blanket guys who can't run routes. Now, Camp may or may not turn into a great route runner, but he's got all the tools to get separation (just maybe not on a straight fly route). I think this guy's potential is through the roof, especially after reading coaches' quotes and finding out his football inexperience. I pegged him as one that I think may get on the field sooner than later.

Fwiw, I agree, but I would add that route-running looked to be a point of improvement for Camp from Jr to Sr year to my inexpert eyes. I think he's going to sneak up on and be big contributor in a couple/few years.
 

Wreck07

Georgia Tech Fan
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GREAT work! These are the kind of posts I come to this site for. However, I completely disagree on Camp. I don't think he's maximized out his physical potential at all. He may grow into a LB/S hybrid type player, or just be a monstrously strong WR. I am not worried about his speed in the least. Smelter was not super fast, nor was DT before him. Corners blanket guys who can't run routes. Now, Camp may or may not turn into a great route runner, but he's got all the tools to get separation (just maybe not on a straight fly route). I think this guy's potential is through the roof, especially after reading coaches' quotes and finding out his football inexperience. I pegged him as one that I think may get on the field sooner than later.

I'm going to disagree and say DT was super fast. In game, he typically looked like the fastest player on the field, and his combine numbers generally back that up.
 

4shotB

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GREAT work! These are the kind of posts I come to this site for.

I will second this comment. really nice breakdown and analysis. I will be honest and say I don't know enough or take the time necessary to provide any type of intelligent rebuttals or affirmations of your observations. However, I agree with the concept of evaluating players by offers received as a very accurate tool (assuming data is real) of a players upside moreso than "star" rankings (although one may strongly correlate with the other).
 

RLR

Jolly Good Fellow
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355
I think you nailed. Great analysis. I really like this class because of the "average" guys with elite ceilings (IMO) - Adams, Dolphus, and Cooper. Then look at their positions - DT, WR, OL - all key. Likewise, it will be fun to see how high a ceiling Xavier Gantt & Jay Jones can reach. Throw in a great BB, OL, DL, DL & maybe Drob & i'm 99.9% happy with class. . . still can't get over campbell, though. Move C Campbell to safety & I forget who finley is.

@Mechaniik curious to know where you would rank Jordan Johnson, solely based on tape. & if it's not too much to ask - how many "above average" players do you think we had last year?
 

tech_wreck47

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I agree with some of this, but I have keep up with football for a while now and somethings I saw written about these guys are just to hard to tell from highlight film. Some of these things are almost impossible to tell unless you have seen them in drills and been around them during practice and games.
 

Boomergump

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I haven't spent as much time with this class as I would have liked at this point, reviewing film etc. After having read this thread (great job everybody btw) I decided to go back and watch a few and offer a few thoughts.

I have been most concerned about DL for a while (no secret) and who we have been able to bring in. So I decided to start there. It looks to me like we have brought in 3 really good players in this group. That eases my mind some.

I am a little higher on Brandon Adams than some in this thread. First and foremost, he is a kid we won't have to teach about pad level. If you haven't watched his film, or you did but just went through the motions, go back and see it again. He is a 300+ lb kid who plays with GREAT pad level already. He is really hard to block and move. When you compare that to Kallon, Gotsis, and to a lesser extent Gamble, this kid is way ahead of the game. Each of those 3 took a while to understand inside technique. He also plays a little angry, which is good. He'll be a NG I am sure, and we need one bad. It all starts on the interior and having a guy who creates a log jam. IMHO, Adams fits that bill nicely.

Branch is a more mature player with a motor and really good feet and instincts. He is ready to play right now. This is another kid who won't be a "project". He will be a "playmaker" from the start. His film might mean a little more since he is going against older kids. Well, they couldn't block him in JUCO and he was all over the place. I am not sure where he will go. He could be a 3 tech or SDE. We will have to see.

Jordan Woods' film was pretty high end. It is hard to imagine any program who wouldn't want a guy like that. He has good push and even better use of hands. He can bull rush and he can beat you on the edge with speed and moves. It will be interesting to see how that plays at the next level because nobody in HS was a match for him. In Woods, we finally have a guy to play on the end who is a protoype in body size. He runs well and should be good whether playing the run or getting after the passer some.

With all the talk about class rankings and all that, in my mind, what really matters is: did you make yourself better in areas that you needed to most? That means more to me in terms of impact. I strongly feel we made ourselves better on the defensive interior with this class and it has been a long time coming.

One more random comment. I decided to watch Mills' film. He might not have eye popping measurables like some RBs going to big schools, but this kid has vision and instinct. One of the more subtle things that makes really good running backs is how well they see the field and ready themselves for contact. This kid runs so tough because he always seems to see things coming before other players do. He knows where his weight is and always has it ready. That is what allowed him to run through so much contact on that film. He continually made great decisions about direction of cuts etc as if the game is slower for him than others.
 

croberts

Ramblin' Wreck
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Glad you took the time to put this together. Obviously Camp is the one in here that has the widest gap of reviews. If you look at offers alone, his value would fall in line with your critique. On the other hand, his coach places his value equal to one 4 star and one 5 star that he coached before. Both of those players played a lot of ball at UGA over the past 4 years. When I look at his tape, I don't see a slow guy at all. I also am amazed that this guy benches 350 lbs and cleans 330 lbs as WR. We have a guy that has only 3 years of organized ball under his belt. I will not say he is my favorite player in this group but he is the most interesting with Potential written all over him.
 

33jacket

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where I disagree is 8-12 (depending on above opinions) of 18 prospects being P5 caliber or P5 offers as well, is not great. If we want to be a top program that needs to be at least 16 or 17 out of 18. So I point to this exactly as an example of how we can do better in recruiting.

IMO there is no reason at tech most of our commits don't have nice P5 offers. Does that mean a gem here or there doesn't become a good NCAA player....no of course not; but by in large gems are exceptions not rules. We are playing a game of numbers and averages....and over years the more top flight competitive recruits you get generally the better you are. I am not talking star ratings. I am talking about fielding a class where 95-100% have competitive D1A P5 offers. If our class is all 3 star, and we never land a 4 star ever again, but all 3 star players have competitive P5 offers...I am happy. We aren't even there yet.

I think its bigtime room for improvement; and why CPJ and his staff deserves recruiting criticism. You combine it with the fact ships go unfilled year over year...The fact remains we are a upper 1/3 P5 school and program. Yet we struggle with quality depth in recruiting. Imagine if we didn't?
 
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