The way I see it…
Guaranteed wins (>95%): BG, SC State
Easy wins (>75%): BC, Syracuse, UVA
Tossups (~50%): Louisville, Wake
Possible wins (>25%): Miami, UNC, Ole Miss
Unlikely wins (<10%): UGA, Clemson
That would equate to about 5-7 wins which seems right. If teams like Louisville, Wake, Miami...