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This is interesting, unsurprising, and a plausible reason why some players aren't getting PT. Also, it is a valid criticism towards the holdover coaches from the former staff- most notably HC Key- if it is, in fact, an issue. I would expect the holdover coaches to know the players'...

Our postgame win expectancy was 75.3%- you are right, the turnovers and context around when and where they happened show up huge.

Hey now, I will not sit back and allow the mighty Ohio Bobcats to be slandered! Tim Albin has done a great job with that program. They went 10-4 last year with a bowl win over Arizona, and are 4-1 so far this year with a nasty defense. They should be 5-0, except their starting QB got knocked out...

In probabilistic terms, what would your definition of a gimme game be? 90%? 95%? I believe we closed as 21 point favorites, which means the market implied that there was a 93.7% chance that we win that game. That seems pretty "gimme" to me.

The Bowling Green loss was very significant, in terms of our chances to get to 6 wins and a bowl. I had guessed 4 wins before the season started, and that is the most likely outcome at this point. Week 5 SP+ has GT moving from -2.3 to -2.9 26.5 (65) for Offense, 29.2 (86) Defense, and -.2...

I agree with this 100%. I prefer to view power rankings that try to predict who the best team is, vs. who has the best resume. I think it all stemmed from my experience as an 11-year-old in 1990, where I swore at that young age that we would beat COL up and down a neutral field....come to find...

Thanks @slugboy - my $.02 here- To echo the initial point, these rankings are not your traditional rankings, which should reflect a team's current season's resume. Instead, they are power rankings and try to predict who would win on a neutral site. The formula is simply (Power Rank Home Team) +...

I would guess GT would open at -5.5/-6 if we played at UVA this week. Most power rankings have GT -5.5 to -8.5 on a neutral field.

Maybe I need new glasses, but it always takes me a good 2-3 min to find the damn GT logo on those graphs LOL My main takeaway was that we won a game that we have historically lost. How many times have we seen a similar situation where the opposing team drives the length of the field and scores...

Haven't had time to plug in any of the updated SP+ numbers, but did see that we were bumped up a couple of points. As pointed out by several fonts, the key to 6 wins and a bowl is the Syracuse game. If the game were played tomorrow, I would guess that Syracuse would open a 5/6 point favorite at...

To get the thread back on track- I am legitimately excited to watch Tech games every Saturday knowing we have a competent QB in King and an offensive staff that gives us a chance to win every single week!

Perhaps the perception is magnified due to how bad their 2021 season was? They improved significantly in 2022, going from an end-of-season SP+ of -15.3 in '21 to -6.4. This year it looks like they're going to go over their Regular Season Win total of 6 and are in contention to win a tough Sun...

What Clay Helton has done at Georgia Southern shows me that the transition can be done in a quick amount of time.

Hey now, at least he's trying to use SP+ metrics to analyze the game! Baby steps

I would like to see some schematic wrinkles that generate more pressure. To date, we have 27 hurries, 7 QB hits, and 2 sacks. We know that we're not going to win the 1 on 1 battles on the line, so we need to do something to create pressure. Otherwise our secondary is going to get shredded.

This is another great resource if you are interested in how books set openers, move numbers, make a profit, etc. Also, the myth that books strive for 50/50 action is dispelled at the 24:46 mark. I would think my fellow engineers with an interest in numbers would find this interesting...

I poked around a bit on the Wake boards. They thought the move from -8 to -3.5 was surprising as well and speculated on their QB health. Also pointed out the market has moved against them in the past two weeks, so maybe a well-respected group feels that Wake is being overrated on a weekly basis...

@slugboy I've been having issues viewing the advanced stats for this game on Game on Paper- have you had the same issues? I ask b/c you've linked to them in the past...

Week 3 SP+ has GT moving from -1.0 to -4.4 24.5 (74) for Offense, 28.8 (85) Defense, and -.2 (100) for Special Teams You can then project out Regular Season Win totals by taking the difference in opponents' SP+ ratings and factoring in Home Field Advantage to get a projected point spread...

LOL, it is a bit more nuanced than that. Save for outlier events like the Super Bowl or World Cup final, volume of money has no effect on the line. 99% of the time the line moves due to sharp money- money that comes in from profiled sharp bettors or betting groups. When you see a move this big...