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Not taking the penalty was egregious. He also declined a penalty that was just as bad vs FSU, but the results of the play were different. I don’t understand why we can’t be making data driven decisions based on expected value vs “gut football feelings.” We need every edge we can get.

The line has moved down a bit to +12.5/+13 depending on where you look. Not a big difference between that and +13.5, but GT taking money nonetheless. Look for FSU to run more this year, utilizing two back sets like Norvell did at Memphis with Tony Pollard, Kenny Gainwell, etc. GT Def was the...

The idea that the books want 50/50 action is a misconception. The books are trying to win. The juice provides a nice ~4% advantage to ensure they win most of the time. The opening line moves are driven by profiled sharp bettors, not by volume of money. The lines will move in the "discovery"...

Bill Connelly's first offseason returning production ratings can be found here: https://archive.is/wQDTy As always, he gives good insight into his process and how he has evolved it to quantify the transfer portal. GT is 46th in the country at 66%. That should boost our power rating by 3...

OKST had beaten OK 27-24 at home the week before. They then had to travel to UCF in what appeared to be a perfect situational "let down" game, and boy did they ever let down. I guess Gundy's teams have had a history of following up big wins with head scratching losses.

https://archive.is/eFWHO A good behind-the-scenes look into the dysfunction that was the ACC bowl selection process. Notre Dame ended up at the Sun Bowl because their name was drawn out of a hat LOL

For what it's worth UCF would open around +2, +2.5 vs Troy. I do not think they're the better team, and I don't think any power rankings have them remotely close.

For those interested, Bill Connelly had a good interview on the Bet the Process podcast yesterday about his SP+ model. Warning that this is a super nerdy podcast- the hosts are Rufus Peabody (of the Massey-Peabody ratings, considered the world's best golf modeler/bettor) and Jeff Ma (of MIT...

Success Rate is weighed heavily by SP+. I believe our offensive success rate was around 44% this year, which is mid to high 40's.

I fully intended to be more active on this thread the entire season, but life / moving back to ATL got in the way...at any rate, attached are the Post Week 13 SP+ ratings. @slugboy - I'm sure you know about this site, but you can pull SP+ and a bunch of other interesting advanced stats...

He should have been fired last year. On the bright side, it's likely that Elko is no longer in the ACC after this year...

Haynes was a different player at TAMU, and he still might be the same player had he stayed. Weinke, Faulkner and Co deserve a lot of credit for his development.

To be able to develop a QB to the point where they are in a position to declare early for the draft would be a tremendous boost to the program, from a recruiting standpoint (provided the Offensive staff stays in place).

ESPN published an article today grading the 46 transfers in college football. I agree with Haynes' grade here. The only QB's with higher grades were Shadeur Sanders and TJ Finley. Grade Tier: A- Haynes King, Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Transferred from: Texas A&M 2023 stats: 1,631 passing...

Thanks for sharing. Maybe a dumb question, but I'm curious how they are defining their top 25 FBS teams. Very similar to the power rank concept that we've discussed here, where those show point differentials over the average FBS teams (vs Top 25 teams). Also, I would guess that our narrow loss...

The Miami win gets us back on track with a realistic shot at 6 wins and a bowl game. IF, and this being GT it is a very big IF, we take care of business vs. BC and UVA, the Syracuse game will be the key to getting to 6. Week 6 SP+ has GT moving from -2.9 to -0.6 28.0 (57) for Offense, 28.3...

SP+ ratings are similar to FEI- GT improves to -.6 after the MIA win. I believe SP+ is having its best year yet with predictions; all stats are tracked here. TEAM RATING OFFENSE DEFENSE SPEC. TEAMS 60 Toledo 1.9 30.7 (39) 28.9 (78) 0.0 (65) 61 Mississippi State 1.7 30.4 (41) 29.0 (79)...

Key touched on my favorite King attribute in his on field post game interview- when he leaves the pocket he has his eyes down the field. Haynes is not perfect, but I'll take him!

Cristobal did this in '18 vs Stanford I believe- Oregon ended up losing in OT. From the postgame recap: DECISION: Afterward, Cristobal was asked why Oregon elected to run on second-and-2 in the final minute of regulation rather than taking a knee on consecutive plays. Verdell fumbled, which set...

Like most of us, I get a good laugh from these threads, but we really have to chill with the Mike Norvell or Nick Saban first year comparisons. Norvell went 38-15 as the HC at Memphis. Saban previously had won a National Championship at LSU. A track record of success gives a bit more leeway to...