I’m skeptical of the accuracy of adjusting for opponent across “classes” per-se. Can shutting down a bunch of bottom-half offenses tell you THAT much about how you’d do against a top-decile offense? Or are there more step-function-like levels where two defenses could do similarly against a meh...
The 2006 passing offense was basically entirely “throw it deep and let Calvin (or occasionally James) Johnson get it” and Wake simply decided to give up 15 yard PI calls occasionally instead of allowing any big connections. The completion percentage vs TD pass stats for Reggie Ball that year...
I bet in his head every win under Key would’ve happened under him too - and then probably we’ve won some more too!! - and he was just unfairly denied the time he needed.
IMO the blitz from Efford was pretty decent, but either Tatum missed covering the middle OR Seymore's DB blitz was a bad call/misread. It was a pretty quick "throw at where the blitz came from" read but the two blitzes basically came from the same spot, and one was VERY late.
This is my take. The “setting other stuff up” thing fits in here- if they stuffed it by blitzing exactly where you ran, you were probably already set up for something else on that very play.
We mixed it up more last night. Short well-designed passing TD to Haynes and another good opportunities for an inside-the-ten pass TD earlier with a drop and a throw that got away. Run some of those against Louisville on that four down fail situation and maybe we win that game.
Still seems to...
Same story as the two losses, lots of self-inflicted pain points.
But at least we learned the answer to the question “can this team beat Duke without being perfect” and covered too.
Also that end of half sequence giving Duke that first tD was a joke all around and if not for that it’s...
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